Nearly 1.9 million people highly food insecure due to conflict, low rainfall and high food prices
For the current period (November 2021 to March 2022), which coincides with the lean season, approximately 1.9 million people are estimated to be in high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) in the urban and rural areas of Mozambique that were analysed, and are in need of humanitarian assistance. Of these, 71% (1.32 million people) are in the four provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Nampula and Zambézia, where many of the country’s Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are concentrated. One district of Tete (Changara), one of Manica (Tambara) and three of Gaza (Chibuto, Mabalane and Guijá) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
The main causes of food insecurity in the current period include the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado province – which the government estimated displaced nearly 820,000 people – shortage of rainfall or irregular rains in parts of Nampula, Tete, Manica, Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo provinces, increasing food prices and COVID-19 restrictive measures. In this period, the following districts are considered to be receiving significant food aid according to IPC criteria: Mueda, Montepuez, Pemba City, Ibo, Ancuabe and Metuge.
For the projection period (April to September 2022), coinciding with the harvest period, the situation is expected to improve in all provinces and cities in the country, with the exception of Cabo Delgado province. Nationally, the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse is estimated to decrease from the current 1.9 million people to 1.4 million people, representing a reduction of 3 percentage points.
The main factors likely to contribute to the improvement of the situation in the projection period are the prospects of good agricultural production linked to forecast normal to above-normal rainfall, lower prices of staple foods, reduction of restrictive measures against COVID-19, and the increased availability of food from own production and wild foods.