Jobs and working conditions around the world are being altered by the effects of climate change and efforts to limit global warming.
The big picture: Companies and countries are expected to create millions of new jobs over the next few decades as they take steps to reduce carbon emissions.
Jobs and working conditions around the world are being altered by the effects of climate change and efforts to limit global warming.
The big picture: Companies and countries are expected to create millions of new jobs over the next few decades as they take steps to reduce carbon emissions.
- Yes, but: Even under best-case scenarios, climate change will continue to take a toll on productivity and laborers, especially among the most economically vulnerable.
State of play: Extreme weather has already been hurting farmers and their output, cutting into lumber production, and eroding coastal tourism.
By the numbers: The equivalent of 80 million full-time jobs throughout the world could be lost in 2030, due to working hours lost to high temperatures, according to a 2019 report from the U.N. International Labour Organization (ILO).
- And that’s based on two huge assumptions: that the world limits warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels — a goal not yet within reach — and that agricultural and construction workers will be able to work in the shade. Take away either of those, and the losses get even worse.
Threat level: Agriculture and construction jobs and workers are expected to be the most impacted by heat stress, per the ILO report.
- Around the world, countries will experience the impacts disproportionately, according to a recent McKinsey report — with Bangladesh and Pakistan being hit especially hard.
- In the U.S., Black and Hispanic workers are likely to be hit by bigger productivity losses due to extreme heat than white workers, an August 2021 report by the Atlantic Council found.
The other side: The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that jobs for environmental scientists and specialists will increase by about 8% by 2030.
- That’s faster than the national average, but far faster growth will come from some jobs more closely tied to limiting the effects of climate change.
- Jobs involving the servicing of wind turbines and installation of solar roofs are projected to see the fastest growth of all jobs, with about 68% and 52% growth respectively over the next decade, according to the Department of Labor.
And some experts insist that a successful transition to a low-carbon economy would create more jobs and economic value than would be lost.
- For example, an October 2020 report by the International Organisation of Employers estimated that 18 million jobs could be created worldwide — largely in construction and renewable energy — if countries took serious climate measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 41%.
- But 6 million jobs would be lost through that kind of transition, largely in the fossil fuels industry, the report stated.
- It’s hard to project exactly how many and when and exactly why job growth happens, because there are a lot of factors like new technologies getting cheaper that impact how jobs change, Michael Wolf, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told Axios.
What they’re saying: Manufacturing and construction could see some of the biggest expansions in jobs, but in general, the kinds of jobs that will be created will be disproportionately high-skilled and high-wage jobs, Stuart Mackintosh, executive director of the think tank Group of Thirty, told Axios.
- Another benefit, according to Mackintosh, is that regions that historically have had few well-paid jobs will see a lot of opportunity.
- For example, the top two renewable energy producing states are Texas (for solar and wind) and Kansas (for wind), according to Mackintosh.
- “Farmers that build these wind farms on their land will get a consistent stream of income. This is not a one off thing … and so the [job estimates] we’re coming up with at the moment are probably too low.”
What to watch: Whether there will be enough workers, and how much government intervention there will be.
- Companies are trying to cut their emissions whether government incentives or mandates exist or not. But what those incentives and rules look like will ultimately dictate the pace and scale of change.
- There’s also already a gap between the demand for “green talent” — people who can employers carry out environmentally friendly policies and achieve their climate goals— and the supply of workers with those skills.
